First Battle Will Be the Last？ Ma May Have Misspoken but Doesn't Mean Tsai is Right
United Daily News Editorial, August 12, 2020
Former President Ma Ying-jeou was invited to the Rotary Club to give a speech on "Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan’s Security". He pointed out that President Tsai Ing-wen previously stated that if a war broke out between the two sides of the strait, hoped the international community would come to Taiwan's aid; But he said that once Communist China attacks Taiwan, "the first battle will be the last." China will not give the U.S. military a chance to support Taiwan, and "it is almost impossible for American forces to come at the present time." Ma called on Tsai, as a president, she should not tell the compatriots how many days Taiwan could last, instead she should tell the compatriots that she could prevent the war from happening.
These remarks immediately drew a lot of question. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters strongly criticized Ma for "kotowing to China." Ma’s supporters refused to be outdone. They particularly quoted a report from the National Defense Security Research Institute, a think tank of the Ministry of National Defense, which revealed "the first battle be the last." as the pronounced strategy for invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
Indeed, if China decides to attack Taiwan, a long delay may bring troubles. As the saying goes "a long night fraught with dreams." It looks forward to subduing us in the shortest possible time, so that even if the international community (America) wants to intervene, it will be too late. The question is that a quick, decisive war is what mainland China desires, but in the current situation, is this objective achievable? Taiwan’s armed forces has been trained and prepared for war for years, including the years of President Ma. Isn't it aiming at preventing the other side from succeeding in its attempt? Will the remark about "the first battle be the last" let our soldiers feel that their existence is of no value at all?
From the standpoint of former President Ma, he may see the current provocative approaches of the Tsai administration a great danger to the country. However, in the delivery of the message, he should have given objective analysis of the situation, emphasized dangers of the war. A leader’s responsibility: should prepare for war but not seek war, should not expose the country and the people to unnecessary risks; If he only cited the Communist Party’s proclamations, it is hard not to be construed as "surrender" to the adversary’s propaganda and demands altogether.
Ma led Taiwan for eight years, from 2008 to 2016. Except for the fanatical supporters of the DPP, probably no one thinks Ma will really "sell out" Taiwan to mainland China. However, throughout his term of office up to his stepping down, President Ma has made remarks that were not precise enough, which provided his political opponents "ammunition" to jeer and exaggerate. There are indeed countless examples. His comrades are overly worried, but former President Ma is adamant "like a stone," repeatedly steps on the same landmines, and constantly allows political opponents the opportunity to red baiting and splashing dirty water, put both himself and the Blue camp into trouble.
However, former President Ma’s "indiscreet remark" does not mean that the current strategy of Tsai administration is right. The recent fierce dispute between Washington and Beijing has led many people in Taiwan to believe that we should be a force siding with the U.S. "unilateralism" and they maintained that the United States and China will eventually go into war. We have to choose sides in advance so that we can ride on the back of American elephant to victory.
The problem is that even though the Trump administration’s attitude towards Beijing has been the toughest in 40 years, and the American Institute in Taiwan has cooperated with the Tsai administration to proclaim "the best U.S.-Taiwan relations in history" for home consumption; the United States has never stated that it will send troops to intervene once a war breaks out across the strait. Therefore, when we plan defense strategy, we can expect the assistance of the United States but must not regard it as a guarantee.
What's more, even if we succeed in holding the first blow and crushing the objective of "the first battle be the last" strategy of the other side, we will inevitably pay a heavy price. Even if the Taiwan Strait conflicts result in a war between the United States and China, Taiwan will not be a beneficiary. Positioned in the front line, Taiwan is destined to become the cannon fodder reduced by the two super powers, regardless which side wins. The demise of a country can no longer be in existence, and the death of people cannot be resurrected. This is the morale for the national leaders.
As for Premier Su Tseng-chang’s rhetoric such as "even with a broom he would fight to the end," it is like the nonsense of Iraqi information Minister Al-Sahhaf. Except that it can be used to explain why he repeatedly failed in seeking the highest position. The rest is not wort mentioning.
"Prepare for war but do not seek war" and "don't wish the enemy will not come, but be prepared for it" are the essential means for the survival of a nation. In this regard, Ma seemed to overemphasize the "threat of enemy" when advocating not to seek war. While President Tsai seemed to forget that resorting to arms should be the ultimate option best to avoid when parading preparation for war. At least, both leaders have clear blind spots in their open remarks.